UPDATES: War In Ukraine (Day 16)
Yesterday saw high level tripartite talks in Turkey but these appear to have achieved little. The shelling of Ukrainian cities continues but no significant changes on the ground have been observed.
It appears that there is localised fighting on all fronts but no sign of a renewed major thrust from Russian forces. The Institute for the Study of War has gone so far as to suggest that the likelihood of Ukrainian forces fighting Russia to a standstill is increasing. It is claimed by open source intelligence (OSINT) sources that Russian missiles struck Lutsk airport in the far West of Ukraine last night, possibly striking Ukrainian air force assets, this is yet to be verified.
Today, Ukraine has warned of Russia’s intention to carry out a false flag operation on the stricken Soviet nuclear plant at Chernobyl. Meanwhile Russia has restricted access to Instagram, following earlier moves to block Facebook and Twitter, claiming the platform has hosted calls for violence against Russians.
If you missed our coverage of the ongoing conflict from yesterday, you can find it here.
This feed timestamps using local Eastern European Time (EET).
Updates:
2:05AM (EET) – Commercial satellite imagery company Maxar have shared a spectacular image of a Russian artillery battery firing, with the satellite image capturing the muzzle flash of one of the guns. The battery was firing on Kyiv.
1:10AM (EET) – ARES, a specialist technical intelligence consultancy, has published a report on the submunitions seen in Ukraine.
12:50AM (EET) – The UK Ministry of Defence has released an ‘intelligence update’ on the situation in Ukraine. The note that Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk whole Russian aircraft are using unguided aerial bombs to attack targets.
7:20PM (EET) – Filippo Grandi, UNHCR High Commissioner, confirmed earlier today that 2.5 million people have fled Ukraine.
6:40PM (EET) – OSINT analysts Oryx have updated their verified list of Russian losses.
6:35PM (EET) – OSINT analysts COUPSURE have shared their take on the situation on the ground noting little movement but heavy fighting around Kyiv.
5:05PM (EET) – Ukraine has suggested that Russia has carried out a false flag attack on positions within Belarus. Attacking from Ukrainian airspace in Su-25 ground attack aircraft in an effort to justify drawing Belarus into the war. These claims have not been verified and no statement has been made by the Belarusian government at the time of writing.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has released footage of the suggested false flag operation on their facebook page. Belarus’ President Lukashesko is currently in Moscow meeting with Putin and according to Russian news agency RIA he has brought a map to show where he believe Ukraine will attack Belarus.
4:48PM (EET) – NPR have analysed the CCTV live feed from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant during the Russian attack on the site and have identified numerous incidents of high-risk infrastructure being fired on during the battle.
3:40PM (EET) – An intriguing suggestion from a US defense source to Jennifer Griffin, a Fox national security corespodent, suggests that the Ukrainian Air Force has 56 operational jets, this ties in to Secretary of State Blinken statement several days ago that Ukraine is operating numerous squadrons.
2:20PM (EET) – According to Russia’s TASS news agency Putin believes there have been ‘positive shifts’ during the negotiations with Ukraine.
2:00PM (EET) – Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Defense Minister, has posted a statement saying that Ukrainian forces are defending and “counter attacking in all directions”. He reiterated that Mariupol is encircled and Russia is “holding the city hostage”. He also announced that the bonus pay promised to troops would be paid early.
1:50PM (EET) – The Defense Intelligence Agency of Ukraine have claimed that Russia is planning a false flag attack on Chernobyl. They give no source for this claim but note that Chernobyl is currently disconnected from the IAEA monitoring system.
1:05PM (EET) – OSINT analyst and Overt Defense contributor Orion_int has shared some new satellite imagery of the airbase in Luninets, Belarus.
28 February 
10 March
12:30PM (EET) – Janes Infantry Weapons Editor Amael Kotlarski notes that from OSINT it appears that some of the Javelin sent to Ukraine include older Block 0 systems.
11:25AM (EET) – The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has reported that since the beginning of the war Russia has fired hundreds of cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine.
11:20AM (EET) – In Lithuania a bilateral NATO exercise with British and Lithuanian troops is taking place. Hunter 2022 has seen troops training with their anti-armor weapons including Javelin and NLAW. Some footage has been released:
10:40AM (EET) – Following on from their video explaining the operation of the Javelin ATGM, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have now shared a video on the German Panzerfaust 3. The video was originally made by Germany and has been overdubbed in Ukrainian.
9:55AM (EET) – The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has released an update on Russian equipment losses. They claim that Russia has suffered more than 12,000 casualties, lost 353 tanks, 1,165 other armored vehicles, 125 artillery systems and 558 other vehicles. These claims have not been independently verified and they note that it is “hard to calculate data due to high intensity of combat.”