Annual Norwegian Intelligence Service Report Focuses on Russian and Chinese and Threats
A few days ago, the Norwegian Intelligence Service released its annual Fokus 2023 “assessment of current security challenges”. Norway’s primary concerns are made clear by the page allotment; the report dedicates about 30 pages to Russia, about 20 pages to China, 8 pages to terrorism and 6 pages to other challenges. The report was accompanied by a number of statements from leading Norwegian defense and intelligence officials made during a series of interviews and press conferences.
Speaking of the Russian threat, Norwegian intelligence concluded that the war in Ukraine has led to a significant draw down of Russian ground forces in the far North (to as much as one-fifth of pre-war levels) and a significant depletion of Russia’s precision weapons stock. However, officials warned that the threat from Russia remains significant.
The North Sea Fleet has not been affected significantly by the war and Russia is likely to increase its focus on the arctic with the move of Finland and Sweden towards NATO and the growing importance of the arctic. Russia is also likely to fallback on its nuclear deterrent in the North with officials noting that, for the first time since the Cold War, Russia has begun regularly deploying tactical nuclear weapons aboard ships operating in the North Sea. Norwegian intelligence also noted that Russia will rebuild its capabilities over the next five to ten years and that it will become increasingly restless, unstable and unpredictable – a major concern given not just its stock of nuclear weapons but also of chemical and biological weapons.
On the question of China, Norwegian intelligence noted a continually aggressive China threatening Taiwan, perusing an aggressive foreign policy and building up its nuclear arsenal. An increasingly assertive China is a challenge to Norway; Fokus 2023 stressed that Beijing is strengthening its ties with Moscow and the two states are likely to cooperate in the arctic. Additionally, the report noted that China is entrenching its position in strategic industries and leveraging science exchanges with Norway to develop dual use technology against Norwegian interest.
The report is not yet available in English but the Norwegian version can be accessed here.