Australia To Purchase Virginia-Class Nuclear Submarines from US
According to four US officials speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, the US is expected to forward deploy a number of submarines to Western Australia as a stopgap measure in anticipation of an Australian purchase of between three and five Virginia-class nuclear submarines in the 2030s. These reports have also been verified by anonymous European officials.
According to multiple sources, these measures would be followed by the acquisition of eight Australian-built submarines in the 2040s; these claims corelate with public statements made by top British and Australian officials. South Australia Premier Peter Malinauskas told Australian media that he spoke “to the prime minister about this on multiple occasion as recent as a couple of weeks ago – that we will be building nuclear submarines here in Adelaide”.
British media, meanwhile, quoted “a senior minister” who weighed in on the competition between British and American submarine designs for Australia. The source said that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was ecstatic and told colleagues that the deal “has definitely gone our way”.
These measures would be implemented under the AUKUS framework; nuclear submarines have been at the center of the AUKUS agreement which has brought US-UK-Australia defense science and technical cooperation to an unprecedented level. An official announcement will likely come next week as US President Biden, British Prime Minister Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Albanese are set to meet in San Diego on Monday for trilateral AUKUS talks.
The forward deployment of US subs by 2027 and the acquisition of a few Australian Virginia class submarines will help fill the capability gap which would otherwise exist before the Australians acquire their own domestically-built boats in the 2040s. This alleviates concerns that while AUKUS will eventually produce a powerful Australian navy and defense industrial base, Australia would be at significant risk in the 2020s and 2030s.
Currently, Australia is looking increasingly towards a potential conflict with China and would be one of the most likely participants if a conflict were to break out over Taiwan. As a relatively small country (population-wise) whose navy must be able to operate in and resist the Chinese navy over an area as large as the South Pacific, nuclear submarines are the ideal platform to accomplish Australia’s strategic vision. Under current plans, Australia’s eventual ratio of surface combatants to submarines is likely to be significantly skewed in favor of the latter when compared against other naval powers.